The situation in Afghanistan has been under the supervision of the public and experts around the world for the second month. The withdrawal of the US military gave a free hand of the Taliban, and in a matter of days the situation in the region changed dramatically. Now, it is not entirely clear how events will develop not only in Afghanistan, but also in the Central Asian region. What is clear is that now more than ever it is necessary to think about security, and not only for individual countries, but also for all players interested in stability.
In this regard, the expert community decided to discuss the current situation in Afghanistan during the conference entitled "Afghanistan as a threat to the national security of Kyrgyzstan and the CSTO countries", which was organized by the Pikir Club of Regional Experts.
Expert, political scientist Igor Shestakov noted in his presentation that important events for the region were held last week - CSTO and SCO meetings. They showed that countries have a common vision for organizing collective security.
“The rhetoric showed that our region is at the forefront. This is even noticeable on social media. There is a concern among ordinary residents, which before didn’t have. Now the information field has expanded. The Afghan agenda has reached a new level, since ordinary people are interested in this,” the expert said.
He added that many began to forget about the Batken conflict, and that it is necessary to analyze the situation in order to prevent of its repeat.
Asylbek Kozhobekov, former deputy head of the State Committee for National Security, noted that where there is instability and chaos, such a territory always poses risks. Today almost all of the territory of Afghanistan is controlled by the Taliban. In addition, the Taliban did not lose their strength during the time when the Americans were in Afghanistan.
“When the US made the decision to enter Afghanistan, the Taliban formed a council to decide what to do. Then they went underground. As a result, NATO troops did not leave large cities for 20 years. During this time, the Taliban have retained their power. They practically retained control over the territory, and after the withdrawal of the United States, the Taliban quickly regained them. It turned out that the people supported this movement. Today, the Taliban in Afghanistan represent a serious force, and their main task is to establish order in their country, as well as gain international recognition,” Kozhobekov said.
He also added that today in Afghanistan terrorists from various groups try not to show themselves in any way, they hid among the population.
“Terrorism will live only when someone finances it. For these sponsors, Syria is a big lesson. During this entire period, he says, we have learned to fight back, we have united in the CSTO. If we talk about a direct invasion, then we can say that it will not happen.
Yes, today Afghanistan is a threat, because there is instability and chaos, but we need to help this country. You shouldn't add fuel to the fire," the expert added.
In addition, one should not forget that external forces also have a significant impact on the situation in the country.
Ombudsman Tokon Mamytov said that the situation in Afghanistan should be viewed from the point of view of refraction of external players.
“There are several groups that are monitoring the situation. NATO troops, despite the fact that they have withdrawn from Afghanistan, they have been actively working with representatives of the Taliban in recent years. These negotiations were very serious, and we do not know everything. But the effect of these meetings was extremely productive. The second group is made up of China and Russia, the third group is Pakistan and the Arab countries that are directly located in this region. They took an honest part not only in the birth of the Taliban movement, but also in the formation of its current state. Also, India and Turkey can be noted as a new group. The last group is an attempt by individual countries to demonstrate to the world community the ability to influence the processes in Afghanistan. But these attempts are only the first steps and it is too early to evaluate them,” the expert noted.
Mamytov also added that the results of these attempts can be assessed only after six months.
In turn, in order to prevent radicalization of society, it is necessary to carry out work among the population, especially among young people, because most of the terrorist cells are composed of young people.
Yuri Pogiba, the President of the Alpha Veterans Association, noted that the situation in the region is characterized as difficult and capable of a sharp deterioration. He also believes that in the near future the Taliban will take full control of Afghanistan.
“Now we understand that one of the factors where extremist ideology arises is where the government does not solve and does not seek a way out of economic problems. It is also necessary to work with young people, since most of the terrorists are young people. The time has come to work out the ideological education of young people. Here we need united measures for the region,” the expert noted.
Another important aspect of the current situation is the issue related to the previously established relations. Shavkat Sabirov, a political scientist from Kazakhstan, noted that many factories in Kazakhstan that produce flour supplied products to the border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. In addition, many products from Kazakhstan were sold to Afghanistan.
“Earlier, our president spoke about strong economic ties. From a security point of view, tensions persist. Regarding the situation with refugees, there were no refugees in Tashkent a week ago, they were transferred to Europe. In the meantime, in this case, our people are more concerned with security issues and the colossal issue is the issue of economy. It is not clear what to do with the volume of goods that were previously sold to Afghanistan,” the expert said.
Kabar News Agency
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