Bishkek, June 10, 2020. /Kabar/. By 2020, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan predicts a 4% decline in the country’s GDP compared to 2019, the Bank’s report on monetary policy says.
Excluding Kumtor enterprise, the GDP decline in 2020 is expected at 5%.
"Taking into account the assumption of a trend towards economic recovery, in 2021 the real GDP growth rate is expected to be about 6.2%, excluding Kumtor GDP growth is expected to be 6.7%," the report says.
In addition, Kyrgyzstan’s National Bank reports that taking into account current internal and external factors resulting from the spread of the global pandemic, inflation in the Kyrgyz economy this year will reach the level near the upper limit of the target range of 5-7%.
"The main factors accelerating inflation in 2020 are the increased demand for food products in March-April this year, caused by the introduction of the emergency and state of emergency regime in some regions of the country, an additional contribution to the growth of consumer prices was also made by the weakening of the som (KGS- national currency) against the US dollar.
However, the increase in consumer prices is expected to be partly offset by a decline in domestic demand in 2020. Thus, average annual inflation in 2020 is expected to be around 7 %, which is 2.4 % higher than in the previous quarter, and year-end inflation (December 2020 to December 2019) may be in the range of 7.0-7.5 %.
In 2021, the average inflation is expected at 4.3% and will reach about 3.5-4% at the end of the year," the report says.
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